The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is on track to eliminate its BTC price “discount” by 2024 after a 17% gain in its share price. This intriguing development has caught the attention of market observers and participants, sparking discussions about the potential implications for the trust itself and the broader cryptocurrency landscape.
In its forecast posted on X, CoinGlass, a reputable blockchain analytics firm, stated that the “GBTC premium,” which has been absent for an extended period, may return sooner than later.
Regulatory Victory Enhances GBTC Performance
The recent victory for Grayscale in its legal battle against U.S. regulators has been a significant catalyst for improving GBTC’s overall performance. This investment vehicle, known for holding over 600,000 BTC, has persistently traded at a discount compared to the prevailing Bitcoin spot price.
This divergence between GBTC’s value and Bitcoin’s price, also known as net asset value, has been a recurring theme since February 2021. Conversely, the “GBTC premium” has been in a negative zone for over two and a half years.
However, the crypto experts forecast a potential reversal of this trend. Their prediction is based on recent reports that the US SEC is actively considering approving the GBTC to become a BTC ETF.
Following the Grayscale court victory, the “discount” plummeted to its lowest level since December 2021, at -17%. This figure is now less than half its previous peak when it had approached 50%.
Meanwhile, Dylan LeClair, a senior analyst at UTXO Management, a digital asset fund, has emphasized the pivotal role GBTC played in influencing Bitcoin’s trajectory to its all-time highs. With its substantial holdings, GBTC was a driving force behind the notable bull run of 2021.
LeClair highlighted that the discount’s recent shift from -26% to -17% could translate to around 56,000 BTC returning to GBTC’s assets under management, provided the shares are revalued accordingly.
Impact On BTC Price
Shifting the focus to the broader Bitcoin market, these developments surrounding GBTC have ignited discussions about the potential impact on Bitcoin’s price action. These moving averages (M.As) are particularly interesting due to their failure to act as reliable support during Bitcoin’s descent to multi-month lows earlier in August.
Renowned trader and analyst Rekt Capital emphasized that the 200-day and 200-week M.As act as crucial targets for potential bullish recovery. In a recent post on X, Rekt highlighted the chance of a bullish reversal following Bitcoin’s double-top formation on its weekly timeframes.
Recognizing the positive momentum around the $26,000 support levels, Rekt Capital argues that BTC must break down this support level completely before it can embark on a sustainable price uptrend.
